Model Rating: 88/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Current: 7/2 | Grade: A-

Rusty Harkness has always looked a horse whose future could lie over fences and now gets the opportunity to prove it.

Henry de Bromhead’s six-year-old arrives after finally getting off the mark over hurdles at Kilbeggan last month, and that performance suggested his stamina is a significant asset. He now steps up to almost three miles on chasing debut, a setup which should place much more emphasis on jumping rhythm and stamina than outright speed.

His background and physical profile make the move to fences logical rather than experimental. Ballinrobe is a relatively sharp track, but the near-three-mile distance gives him ample time to find his rhythm.

Jeroboam Machin is the obvious danger at 2/1 and is a former point-to-point winner, meaning his chasing potential is clear. Donnie Devito brings actual chase experience and is capable of much better than his Galway seventh, where he almost unseated early. Mickie Angel also has realistic claims.

This is therefore not one to attack heavily, but 7/2 gives enough margin to side with Rusty Harkness’s progressive profile.