Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 23% | Fair Odds: 10/3 | Available: 11/2 | Grade: A+

Zavateri is the strongest blend of ability and price on Saturday’s card.

He was one of the leading juveniles last season, winning four of his first five races and ending that sequence with a Group 1 National Stakes victory at the Curragh. That already tells us he belongs at this level rather than needing to make an enormous leap in class. He returned this season with a narrow second in the Greenham before missing the Guineas through a setback.

His Sussex Stakes run is better than the bare fifth suggests. Returning from another break, he broke awkwardly from stall 11, became trapped behind horses and only found racing room when the major players had already committed. He still finished little more than four lengths behind horses rated in the 120s, including Bow Echo, Gstaad and Opera Ballo. Connections have since reported that he has come forward considerably for the run.

The drop from a mile to seven furlongs looks a positive. Zavateri has plenty of natural speed, and the likely strong pace should allow him to settle rather than needing to manufacture his own race.

Notable Speech is unquestionably the horse to beat on peak form. He is a five-time Group 1 winner and looked top-class in the Lockinge, but his poor Queen Anne run creates uncertainty and the rain-softened York ground is another question.

At around 11/2, Zavateri does not need to be the most likely winner to be the best bet.