Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 11% | Fair Odds: 8/1 | Available: 12/1 | Grade: A Value

The Ebor is not a race where I want to pretend anything is bombproof, but Hopewell Rock has one of the strongest improving handicap profiles in the field.

His form reads 2-9-3-6-1, and the latest Goodwood performance is the reason he makes the portfolio. Stepping up to 1m6f for the first time, he won a strong 13-runner Class 2 handicap and reportedly broke the course record. He now comes here effectively 1lb well in under his revised mark.

That Goodwood run suggests the longer distance has unlocked substantial improvement. He carries 9st 7lb from OR101, which leaves him in a much more manageable part of the handicap than the topweights.

There is one genuine concern: his Goodwood win came on good-to-firm and his previous heavy-ground Doncaster effort was poor. However, he won a novice on soft ground as a younger horse, so I would not conclude that easing ground is automatically against him.

The field is loaded with credible alternatives. Love Me Tender is fascinating on his first run for Willie Mullins with William Buick booked; Emit has Ryan Moore and a useful pull in the weights with Opportunity; while Daiquiri Bay comes here unbeaten this year.

At 12/1, though, Hopewell Rock is one I want onside rather than trying to solve the Ebor at 7/1.