Rayevka gets the model vote in an outstanding Nunthorpe.

She has improved sharply since dropping back to the minimum trip, winning a Group 3 at Longchamp before finishing a narrow second to Mission Central in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. That is exactly the level of form required here, and importantly she travelled through that Ascot race like a five-furlong specialist rather than a horse merely coping with the trip.

Her current profile reads 26-5612, with the two latest performances comfortably the strongest of her career. Mickael Barzalona rides for Francis-Henri Graffard, and that combination has already shown they are willing to travel when they believe the right race is available.

The pace should be ferocious, which is a positive. Rayevka’s best attribute is the way she travels before producing a finishing burst, so she should get the strong tow she wants.

Bacio is the obvious danger after his Royal Ascot performance, while American Affair returned to his best at Goodwood. Mission Central is also respected after beating Rayevka at Ascot, but the model believes the margin between them was small enough for Rayevka to reverse it under tomorrow’s conditions.

Model: 92/100
Win Probability: 24%
Fair: 13/4
Current: around 10/3