Silver Lake is one of the most progressive handicappers on Friday’s York card.

She comes here chasing a hat-trick after winning at Salisbury and then Goodwood. Her latest Goodwood victory came over just shy of ten furlongs, which is almost identical to tomorrow’s distance, and she showed there that she could travel strongly before finding enough under pressure. Her recent form is now 7-6-3-1-1.

She is still relatively lightly raced after only five starts and therefore has much more scope to improve than most of the older fillies and mares she faces. William Haggas has steadily brought her forward rather than rushing her, and Saffie Osborne keeps the ride.

The main concern is price because she has already been found by the market and is now around 11/4 to 3/1. She also has to prove that good-to-soft is as suitable as the quicker ground on which her two wins came.

Lady Dora Mae and Plaid are the obvious dangers, but Silver Lake is the horse with the clearest upward trajectory. Current odds comparisons have her heading the market around 5/2–3/1.

Model: 90/100
Win Probability: 30%
Fair: 7/3