This is probably the best pure value bet on the York card.

The Lost King returned to form in a big way when winning over this exact course and distance in July. He travelled notably strongly through that race and already had excuses for his Royal Ascot defeat, where his positioning left him with too much to do. He now comes back to a track and trip we know suit him.

He races from OR102, so another career-best is required, but he remains much less exposed than several of the established handicappers around him. Oisin Murphy rides for Andrew Balding, and proven York form is worth something in a 17-runner Heritage Handicap where plenty can go wrong.

Centigrade is potentially the most talented runner and is only 5/2 after winning on his return from a 20-month absence. However, that price asks us to assume he will make a big step forward on handicap debut. The Lost King is 10/1, despite already proving himself under the exact C&D conditions.

That is a much more interesting risk/reward trade-off.

Model: 92/100 | Fair ~6/1 | Current 10/1