Model Rating: 92/100
Win Probability: 34%
Fair Odds: 15/8
Current: 9/4
Grade: A+

Almeiyda is the strongest established form selection on the Irish card.

Dermot Weld’s three-year-old has progressed steadily and now comes here after finishing second on consecutive starts. Most importantly, she was beaten only a length in a 14-runner Galway maiden three weeks ago despite being inconvenienced by a loose horse during the race. She travelled strongly enough to remain involved and was only beginning to weaken late.

There is even stronger evidence specifically relating to tomorrow’s conditions: before Galway she went very close over this course and distance. That eliminates the usual question around whether a horse will handle Roscommon’s particular configuration.

Her official rating of 82 also sets a useful benchmark. Rather than requiring a speculative leap forward, she already possesses a level of form normally capable of winning an ordinary maiden. Chris Hayes remains aboard for Dermot Weld, and that combination knows Roscommon exceptionally well.

She is drawn nine, which is not ideal, but over this distance there should be sufficient time to obtain position without using excessive energy. The bigger concern is that she is beginning to accumulate seconds without winning; however, her latest performances suggest circumstance rather than lack of ability has been responsible.