Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 23% | Fair Odds: 10/3 | Forecast: 4/1 | Grade: A / Value

Grayrobin is where the model differs most interestingly from the Curragh market.

His debut for Archie Watson at Nottingham was disappointing, but his profile has completely changed since joining Kate McGivern in Ireland. He dropped to five furlongs and improved immediately, winning at Bellewstown, before confirming the progress by winning again at Cork. He therefore enters tomorrow chasing a hat-trick, with his last two performances both demonstrating that the minimum trip suits him extremely well.

That improvement is reflected in his current figures. Racing Post lists him with an official rating of 92 and RPR of 95, and he has proven himself on both good and good-to-firm ground. Chris Hayes rides again.

The market is headed by Armor Supreme at around a 9/4 forecast, and her peak figures are undoubtedly stronger: she has posted an RPR of 109 and Topspeed 107. However, her most recent run produced a ninth at Royal Ascot, while Grayrobin arrives with momentum and still has the profile of a juvenile moving forward rapidly.

Armor Supreme’s earlier York run was strong — she went down by only a head in Listed company after helping force the pace — so she is clearly dangerous. But she is giving Grayrobin 5lb tomorrow, and the model does not think there should be as large a price difference between them as the forecast market suggests.

Brazilian Diva and Concorde Landed also make this a proper Listed race rather than a straightforward two-runner affair.