Model Rating: 89/100 | Fair Odds: 5/1 | Target: 7/1+ | Grade: A / EW

Newmarket’s annual greys-only handicap tends to produce a competitive field, but Archduke Ferdinand has several model factors in his favour.

The July Course is a track where horses who can travel comfortably behind the speed and sustain their effort are often rewarded, and his racing style should suit the setup. More importantly, Shay Farmer’s 5lb claim materially improves his effective weight and could be particularly valuable in a tightly matched Class 4 handicap.

This is not a horse the model makes overwhelmingly likely to win. The attraction is the expected price relative to his chance. The six-furlong straight track limits some of the traffic risks found on turning courses and gives his rider more freedom to react to where the strongest pace develops.

The concern is that greys-only handicaps often contain plenty of exposed runners whose form lines overlap, meaning small differences in race position can decide the result.