Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 22% | Fair Odds: 7/2 | Available: 15/2 | Grade: A+

Captive Beauty is the strongest combination of unexposed profile and price on tomorrow’s cards. The three-year-old has had only four starts and showed considerably more on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton, finishing a close second despite having to come from off the pace and briefly meeting trouble late. Timeform’s assessment is that she might have got to the winner without that interruption, and she is only 2lb higher tomorrow.

That matters because most of this field is considerably more exposed. Rather than asking Captive Beauty to return to an old level, we are backing the possibility that her Wolverhampton run represents the beginning of her progression in handicaps. She was also relatively weak in the market that day, so the improved performance was not simply a well-telegraphed stable gamble.

David Probert takes the ride for Ross Burdon. The Polytrack is a new variable compared with that latest effort, so she isn’t risk-free, but her running style should be manageable around Lingfield provided she isn’t left with too much ground to make up.

At 15/2, the market is implying around an 11.8% chance. My model is almost double that.