Model Rating: 88/100 | Win probability: 20% | Fair: 4/1 | Available: 5/1 | Grade: A-

Perfidia has been more consistent this season than the raw form figures might initially suggest and comes here in a race where returning to a mile looks important.

He has already won twice this year and races from 62, which is 5lb higher than his last winning mark but not beyond a level from which he has previously shown himself competitive. Cian Horgan’s 3lb claim offsets part of that burden.

His latest run is reasonably easy to forgive. He was stepped up in trip, raced too freely early and unsurprisingly failed to finish his race as strongly as desired. Returning to the mile is much more suitable given the bulk of his better recent form has come from approximately 1m to 1m1f.

Tim Easterby’s horses often improve for getting back into their correct conditions rather than through obvious class drops, and this looks that sort of setup. He is not as strong as the top three model bets, but 5/1 offers sufficient compensation.