Model Rating: 91/100 | Win probability: 23% | Fair: 10/3 | Available: 6/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Point Of Contact is one of tomorrow’s most interesting handicappers because there is a strong case for ignoring his latest Sandown effort.

He had previously won a 16-runner York handicap in June and is only 3lb higher here. That York success matters because it showed he can operate successfully in a proper competitive handicap environment, and he remains relatively lightly raced for this level with only ten previous starts. He also performed with credit in strong big-field handicaps last season.

Tomorrow brings two important changes: a drop in class and a return to a proven trip. PJ McDonald rides for Andrew Balding, and Balding’s historical Hamilton record is particularly noteworthy — the source records an all-time strike rate of around 30% at the track, including two winners and a second from three runners there this year.

That trainer placement is significant. This looks much more realistic than the Sandown assignment and the model believes Point Of Contact still has some upside from his present mark.

At 8/1, I make him materially overpriced.